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光伏产业链价格上涨迎旺季 日期:2019-09-19 来源:中国投资咨询网 浏览:102 评论:0 光伏:根据PVinfolink,受9月份国内光伏竞价项目启动,国内需求开始转暖,叠加海外需求的高景气度,硅料、硅片、电池片、光伏玻璃均出现不同程度的价格上涨,但是PERC电池价格依然在0.91元/w左右,低于大部分产能的现金成本,预计在Q4旺季的拉动下,PERC电池价格有望小幅回升,且硅片价格也开始上涨,形成价格支撑。 能源局预计19年光伏建设50GW,并网40——45GW,我们拆分装机规模在43GW左右, 需求呈现前低后高的情况: 1)存量项目大约有10GW,包含存量有指标光伏项目总数; 2)平价项目5GW,包括地面电站1GW、工商业分布式4GW; 3)户用指标3.5GW;4)扶贫指标1.6GW;5)竞价规模22.78GW。 我们看好硅片和硅料在下半年的发展: 1)单晶硅片环节确定性大于另外三个环节,降价空间有限,单晶渗透率持续提升; 2)致密料价格维持稳定,低成本效应可以挤出二三线多晶硅料,推荐关注隆基股份、通威股份。