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单多晶技术拉锯战升级

光伏领跑者计划于2015年推出以来,我国光伏发电产品在转换效率、制造成本等方面实现大幅度提升,并引领我国光伏产业步入比拼质量和效率的全新时代,也难以避免地引发了一场关于单多晶技术孰优孰劣的拉锯战。

近期被广泛转发的《一张图看懂组件选型》显示,如建设开发一座装机容量为50MW的地面电站,相比采用单晶280W组件和单晶PERC 290W组件而言,采用高效多晶270W组件会更具性价比,且相比使用单晶PERC组件可节省近700万元。

领跑者计划对单多晶分别设置最低效率门槛,单多晶组件转换效率分别要达到17%16.5%,而领跑者计划实施时,单多晶行业平均效率水平分别在17.1%16.1%,这使得单晶占据了极大优势,并成为领跑者项目的宠儿。

光伏发电上网标杆电价不断下调,在光伏电站开发中,需综合考虑组件成本、土地成本、安装成本等多个方面。光伏行业公认的衡量光伏电站性价比的指标是平准化度电成本(LCOE),光伏电站的总成本越低,电站的发电量越高,电站的性价比就越高,而光伏电站的总成本差异主要体现在项目的初始投资成本上。

在分布式屋顶光伏电站中,由于屋顶面积固定,可安装组件的数量固定,单块组件的功率越大,项目的装机容量越大,发电量越大,随之售电收入也就越高。目前市面上主流的光伏组件中,单晶PERC组件、普通单晶组件和高效多晶组件的功率有5-10W的差距,在分布式项目中,使用单晶或单晶PERC组件则更为合适。

根据第三方分析机构的调研数据显示,虽然2016年受领跑者政策影响,单晶组件市场占有率明显提高,但多晶产品仍是市场主流。从全产业链单多晶产能比例,以及新技术投资方向,都可以遇见到在未来几年内光伏行业技术分布仍将是多晶占据主流,多种高效新技术产业化步伐加快,呈现技术多样化发展局面。

未来,多晶技术进步潜力巨大,性价比优势将再次大幅提升。业内乐观预计,2017年下半年其产能将大规模释放,超过50GW规模的多晶降本提效将得以加速。金刚线切+黑硅+PERC”三项技术叠加后,多晶电池的量产转换效率可以达到20%,满足超级领跑者的要求。