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国光伏产能过剩之忧(2020至今光伏新产能投资计划)

光伏系统工程  来源:中财龙马资本  作者:涨若今  2020/10/10 8:43:14  我要投稿 北极星太阳能光伏网讯:2018年来,随着政府对光伏补贴政策的退坡,我国光伏新增装机量虽然出现连续两年下滑,但是光伏累计装机量则连年增长,2018年和2019年累计装机量增速分别为34.2%和17.1%。另一方面,我国光伏并网容量虽然每年增长,但是依旧赶不上光伏累计装机量的增长。2018年和2019年光伏并网容量增速分别为23.11%和14.4%,累计装机量与并网容量的差距在不断扩大,已经从2017年1.23倍增加到2019年的1.44倍。 进入2020年以来,光伏企业纷纷进行大规模扩产,其中晶科投资350亿,隆基投资287.85亿,东方日升286亿,通威投资235亿,晶澳投资123.3亿,五家投资合计1282.15亿,占总投资2155.87亿的中59.47%。在下述投资清单中,投资总额近2156亿元,组件产能扩产幅度最大,各组件企业扩产投资总额达1074.33亿(有企业投资电池和组件的总额未分别列出),占总投资超过一半。仅扩产的组件总产能就已经超过220GW,再加上现有产能,组件产能更高。 在当前整个光伏市场景气比较高的情况下,可能某个环节产品超过24个月价格不变。但当外部环境变化时,类似2018年“531”政策出台的环境,全产业链价格会出现雪崩式下降,一定会出现从上到下的大洗牌,进行全产业链重塑,届时会有大而不强的企业倒下,甚至出局,正如光伏十几年来不断上演的“光伏魔咒”,将形成强者恒强,弱者更弱的格局。 由于预期中国社会用电量需求增速将维持在4%左右的低水平,我国新建光伏产能的很大一部分将用来出口,因此外部环境的影响将对今后我国光伏产能的消纳起到越来越关键的作用。