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对韩多晶硅反倾销税率调整分析

11月21日上午,商务部发布了对原产于韩国的进口太阳能级多晶硅倾销及倾销幅度期中复审裁定的公告。复审裁定,原产于韩国的进口太阳能级多晶硅存在倾销,税率调整如下: 相比原税率,本次期中复审裁定税率调整不大,OCI税率由2.4%上调至4.4%,韩国硅业(Hankook)税率由2.8%上调至9.5%,韩华化学税率由12.3%下调至8.9%,其余企业的反倾销税率上调较多。本次期中复审,OCI受影响最小,而韩华化学则会受益税率下调,后期可能加大对中国的出口。 之所以没有大幅上调税率,SOLARZOOM新能源智库分析可能的原因如下: 1、当前国内多晶硅产业已经发展壮大,国内一线多晶硅企业如协鑫、通威等,成本已经远低于瓦克、OCI等国外企业,且仍在不断扩产。 2、当前国内可供拉晶使用的高纯多晶硅产能不高(协鑫、通威等仍在扩产中),而今年以来单晶硅片大幅扩产,造成高纯多晶硅供应略显紧张。OCI一直是国内硅片企业的主要高纯多晶硅供应商,一旦大幅提高反倾销税率,容易造成单晶硅片企业失去硅料供应来源。 3、今年二季度以来,多晶硅价格一直处于高位,一旦大幅提高反倾销税率,将刺激多晶硅价格暴涨,进一步刺激成本较高的小企业盲目扩产,造成投资浪费。 4、从政治角度考虑,当前阶段不适宜发动大规模贸易战。 产能方面,OCI在韩国本土拥有5.2万吨产能,其收购的德山位于马来西亚的工厂拥有1.38万吨有效产能(这部分进入中国没有壁垒),韩国硅业与韩华化学各有1.5万吨产能。 对于本次的税率调整,业内早已有预期,四季度下游需求仍然旺盛,在检修等因素叠加下,多晶硅价格仍然保持在高位。由于多晶硅扩厂周期较长,此前宣布扩产的协鑫、通威,其新产能预计在2018年第三季度才能释放,稳定出产可能要到四季度。业界预计在需求旺盛的基础上,2018年前三季度多晶硅价格有可能保持在120元/KG以上。