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新能源行业下半年投资策略:光伏平价时代来临

日期:2020-07-13     来源:未来智库    浏览:97    评论:0 光伏平价时代来临,经济性驱动全球光伏装机持续增长。受益于光伏产业链成本持续下降,各国光 伏度电成本与火电度电成本价差持续收窄;国内光伏发电政策延续性较好,2020年国内装机稳中 有进。预计2020-2022年全球新增光伏装机分别为120.22GW、140GW、160GW。 大尺寸硅片是行业降本增效潮流下的必然选择。大尺寸硅片在硅片端降低单位长晶成本,在电池、 组件、系统环节摊薄单瓦非硅成本,经济效益显著;隆基股份规划166mm单晶硅片快速扩产;中 环股份迈入210mm单晶硅片时代。 N型电池快速导入,HIT量产边际到来。电池环节的超额利润主要来源于低生产成本和高转换效率, 随着P-PERC全面普及,更高效率的N型高效电池成为发展方向。预计至2022年,当HIT电池成本 降至0.72元/W,HIT组件价格降至1.56元/W(含税)时,HIT电站LCOE可降至0.281元/KWh,与 PERC电站持平,从而具备落地经济性。 平价上网后利润有望向制造业环节转移。平价时代到来后,光伏产品降价压力减小,随着降本增效 的持续推进以及行业格局的优化,各环节盈利能力尚有一定提升空间。根据测算,预计平价时硅料、 硅片、电池片、组件环节毛利率分别为30%、25%、15%、3%。 “光伏+储能”成本持续下降。光储政策利好推动储能装机热情,未来随着储能技术日趋成熟、光 伏及储能成本的持续下降,光伏发电经济性、平稳性大大提 升,有望替代传统能源成为主要能源应 用场景。