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美国反倾销再重审 台湾4.2%低税率仍无优势

美国商务部于昨日发出对台湾电池反倾销重审的初判税率,台湾厂商由最低11.45%、最高27.55%、其他厂商19.5%,降至最低3.5%、最高4.2%、其他厂商4.09%。应诉人之一中美晶体系(旭泓、升阳科)拥有本次的3.5%最低税率、亦有台湾最大的PERC产能、又有组件品牌能相辅相成,为本次最大的赢家。反观新日光、太极因未参加本次复审,适用去年19.5%的税率,只能寄望加速第三地产能的产品差异化布局,才能再有发挥。

EnergyTrend观察,由于过去两年间,多数中国一线垂直整合大厂已至东南亚布局零税率产能,在第三地多晶产品选择已多、且目前美国大型地面电站平均价格已降至US$ 0.35-0.37 / W来看,若要与第三地零税率产能竞争,恐没有太大优势。

而单晶、单晶PERC产品在去年美国展后掀起一波热潮,中国一线大厂在2016Q4开始对美国的PERC出货也明显抬升。目前第三地单晶、PERC产能仍在爬坡阶段,较为成熟的零税率单晶PERC产能算上SolarWorld、韩华Q-cellsREC Solar不超过2GW,使得台湾在单晶以及单晶PERC产品能因为低税率略有发挥。

目前单晶PERC在美国屋顶型市场仍有US$ 0.38~0.45 / W,以台湾仅3.5-4.2%的税率来算,若能以自有组件出货将有发展空间,但若仍以倚靠低税率,仅能为高效电池片争取短暂优势,竞争力仍会随第三地单晶、PERC产能的逐步扩大而优势渐减,故低税率只能成为近期的过渡。

回顾过去几年,台湾厂商在过去无反倾销税、低反倾销税时期都已经错失发展组件品牌良机,使得公司在第三地产能快速增长时竞争力锐减。不仅下游发展成效不彰,近来上游的单晶硅片来源也未能加以巩固,演变为高效电池效率、品质优良,但依旧利润有限。未来,台湾厂商除了思考单晶以及PERC产能、效率如何尽速发挥之外,向下游发展的决心也需更加坚决。否则若仅寄望以电池片销往美国,也恐将在组件大厂须巩固组件加工利润之时,把台湾最后的优势产品PERC电池砍至成本线价位。本次税率的优势不能仅考虑短多局面,而是趁稍有喘息之时如何严防长空格局,才是台厂当务之急。