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双反影响下的美国光伏市场

双反影响下的美国光伏市场 日前,美国总统特朗普正式宣布,将通过301条款对价值约2000亿美元的中国进口产品征收关税,其中包括逆变器和非锂电池。这是美国今年第二次对太阳能行业发起关税制裁,尽管本次给出了临时关税税率作为缓冲期,但此前的201条款已经对美国太阳能市场产生了一定的影响。 市场装机量下降 据美国光伏协会SEIA与GTM的联合报告显示,2018年第二季度,美国光伏装机2.3GW,同比下降9%,与第一季度相比下降7%。虽然加州仍在整体市场占据主体地位,但是其他的市场所占比重在持续增长。 产业链价格下跌 自从201条款宣布实施以来,世界主要制造商便开始陆续宣布在美国建厂以规避高额进口税。但在条款实施之后不到四个月,中国组件出口海外的价格即在531新政所引起的国内需求急降影响下持续低走,尽管进口光伏产品需要交纳30%的关税,但美国第二季度光伏组件的市场平均售价仅为$0.42/W,达到了一年以来最低水平。 产业预期 虽然目前装机规模明显下跌,但是据SEIA的数据显示,2018年已经签署合同的太阳能发电规模为8.5GW,这可能导致下半年装机量的明显反弹,预计2018年年度装机量将与去年持平。而在2019年底,随着30%的投资税收抵免政策的即将到期,加上关税下降、可再生能源配额政策临近结束,美国市场可能会迎来新一轮的抢装,随着利用ITC尾端的项目上线,2020年后装机量将恢复增长。