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1月份组件排产环比下降15%,P型硅料出现累库趋势

发表于:2024-01-11 09:33:30     作者:索比分析师刘珊珊 来源:索比咨询 1组件 本周组件价格下降。地面电站单晶182双面0.90元/W,单晶210双面0.93元/W,TOPCon182双面0.97元/W。 供需方面,目前行业淡季,企业接单率较为低迷,1月份组件排产约40GW,较12月下调约15%。海外市场有回暖趋势。 招标方面,1月9日,中电建2024年度光伏组件框采开标。P型最低0.806元/W,N型最低0.87元/W,TOP4厂商平均报价0.93元/W。 价格方面,目前组件价格仍在寻底过程中,目前的低价全产业链都难以盈利,行业洗牌加速。二季度需求回暖,价格有望回升。   2、硅料/硅片/电池 本周硅料价格不变。单晶复投均价6.04万元/吨,单晶致密均价5.82万元/吨,单晶菜花均价5.45万元/吨,颗粒硅5.90万元/吨。 供需方面,目前N型料供需都较为平稳,P型料相对过剩有累库趋势。价格方面,目前价格已到阶段性低位,价格继续下降空间有限,硅料价格有望逐步企稳。 本周硅片价格下降。单晶182硅片均价1.82元/片;单晶210硅片均价2.91元/片;N型210硅片均价3.15元/片。 供应方面,目前硅片环节企业排产下调,硅业分会数据,1月份硅片产量预计在50GW左右,环比下降约16%。价格方面,P型硅片由于大幅减产,价格出现反弹趋势。 本周电池片价格不变。单晶182电池均价0.37元/W,单晶210电池均价0.38元/W,N型TOPCon单晶182电池均价0.47元/W。 供需方面,目前电池端排产基本持稳,库存维持低位,目前N型电池需求好于P型,未来高成本PERC电池产能将进一步出清。